New map may create two suburban districts, leading to costly campaigns
From the Illinois Civil Justice League
In response to recent speculation that the Illinois legislature is considering redrawing the Illinois Supreme Court map for the first time in over 50 years, the Illinois Civil Justice League has issued a whitepaper to educate the legislators, decision makers and the general public on the requirements and challenges of this process. Issues examined in the whitepaper include constitutional, institutional, demographic and political considerations. The current Supreme Court consists of seven justices, three from Cook County as required by law and four from districts outside of Cook County. Democrats hold a 4-3 majority on the court.
“The 1970 Illinois Constitution provides guidelines for consideration of judicial political boundaries that divide the state into five judicial districts: Cook County and four judicial districts of ‘substantially equal population, each of which shall be compact and composed of contiguous counties’ that hold the potential to drastically remake the Illinois Supreme Court,” according to John Pastuovic, president of the Illinois Civil Justice League. “It is a fact that the reporting of cases from individual counties within 24 judicial circuits to the five appellate courts has worked, somewhat unchanged, for fifty years. A decision to remap the Supreme Court districts will set off a chain of events that will result in sweeping changes to Illinois’ judicial branch, requiring among other things, that some sitting judges may need to move or retire,” he added.
The Democrats will cite a host of political reasons for overhauling the Supreme Court districts at this time, particularly that, the suburban Second District, once Republican-leaning with reliable strongholds such as DuPage, Kane and Lake counties, is now twice the population of each of the Third, Fourth and Fifth Districts and outside the constitutional guidelines that require the districts be “substantially equal population.” “In reality, the decision to push for a remap is grounded in the fact that the defeat of the Third District’s Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride in his 2020 retention election has created an opportunity for a Republican to win that seat that now leans Republican and would give them their first Illinois Supreme Court majority in 50 years,” he continued.
While it’s clearly the goal of the Illinois Democrats to create at least one additional Democratic district to ensure their 4-3 majority on the Supreme Court, constitutional limitations and geo-political realities suggest that goal cannot be guaranteed. “According to our analysis, it appears that the Democrats’ best opportunity is to redraw the map to keep the currently configured Circuits whole, while creating two suburban Chicago districts that perform 50-50 in the off-presidential year cycle,” Pastuovic said.
“This scenario provides a remap that would move appointed Republican Justice Michael Burke and his home county of DuPage into a new district that includes only 62.6 percent of residents that he currently represents. This map would also create a suburban district that includes Kane, Lake, McHenry, Boone, and Winnebago counties that would have no current Supreme Court member. This would be an optimal strategy for Illinois Democrats: moving an appointed incumbent Republican into a new district with new territory, while taking an existing district and providing for no inherent incumbent. This scenario would set up two extremely competitive and costly Supreme Court races that will be fought out in the expensive Chicago media market,” Pastuovic concluded.