Electing A U.S. Supreme Court
From the National Law Journal
At the end of the second year of President Obama's second term, will Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg decide to retire? Or, at the end of the second year of President Romney's first term, will Justice Antonin Scalia choose to call it a day?
Although the ages of those two justices — 79 and 76, respectively — and the looming presidential election have fueled speculation about possible retirements in the near future, most court watchers would be reluctant to put real money on either scenario. Both appear to be going strong — and remember, John Paul Stevens left the bench at age 90.
However, legal empiricists, political scientists and demographers would not so readily dismiss the likelihood of the septuagenarians — Ginsburg, Scalia, Anthony Kennedy and Stephen Breyer — and even Clarence Thomas, 64, leaving the U.S. Supreme Court in the next few years depending on who is the next president.
"It turns out they do care about politics," said legal empiricist James Lindgren of Northwestern University School of Law, co-author of a 2010 study, "Retirement and Death in Office of U.S. Supreme Court Justices."
Scalia confirmed Lindgren's comment, as least for himself, during an interview last summer on Fox News Sunday. He was asked if the politics of the sitting president would affect the timing of his retirement and he answered, "I would not like to be replaced by someone who immediately sets about undoing everything that I've tried to do for 25 years, 26 years, sure. I mean, I shouldn't have to tell you that. Unless you think I'm a fool."
Lindgren became interested in whether justices retire strategically when he worked on an article with Northwestern colleague Steven Calabresi about term limits for justices. He recruited University of Chicago demographer Ross Stolzenberg to see if they could find a way to reconsider what both men described as "inconsistent findings" during more than 70 years of "rancorous debate" in historical, legal and political research on the so-called "politicized departure hypothesis."
Read more in our daily News Update...
From the National Law Journal
At the end of the second year of President Obama's second term, will Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg decide to retire? Or, at the end of the second year of President Romney's first term, will Justice Antonin Scalia choose to call it a day?
Although the ages of those two justices — 79 and 76, respectively — and the looming presidential election have fueled speculation about possible retirements in the near future, most court watchers would be reluctant to put real money on either scenario. Both appear to be going strong — and remember, John Paul Stevens left the bench at age 90.
However, legal empiricists, political scientists and demographers would not so readily dismiss the likelihood of the septuagenarians — Ginsburg, Scalia, Anthony Kennedy and Stephen Breyer — and even Clarence Thomas, 64, leaving the U.S. Supreme Court in the next few years depending on who is the next president.
"It turns out they do care about politics," said legal empiricist James Lindgren of Northwestern University School of Law, co-author of a 2010 study, "Retirement and Death in Office of U.S. Supreme Court Justices."
Scalia confirmed Lindgren's comment, as least for himself, during an interview last summer on Fox News Sunday. He was asked if the politics of the sitting president would affect the timing of his retirement and he answered, "I would not like to be replaced by someone who immediately sets about undoing everything that I've tried to do for 25 years, 26 years, sure. I mean, I shouldn't have to tell you that. Unless you think I'm a fool."
Lindgren became interested in whether justices retire strategically when he worked on an article with Northwestern colleague Steven Calabresi about term limits for justices. He recruited University of Chicago demographer Ross Stolzenberg to see if they could find a way to reconsider what both men described as "inconsistent findings" during more than 70 years of "rancorous debate" in historical, legal and political research on the so-called "politicized departure hypothesis."
Read more in our daily News Update...